Current home Mortgage Rates

Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.

Where are mortgage rates going?

Sometimes the markets act in line with how you would normally expect, and other times they go against conventional thinking. The yield on the U.S. 10-year treasury note is the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are headed. If the yield goes up or down, typically that means that mortgage rates are headed that way as well. This week, however, the 10-year yield and mortgage rates have decided to walk down different paths.

Ever since last Friday, the 10-year yield has been on the rise. For five straight days it’s been trending higher, reaching nearly twenty basis points from where it was on Friday morning. As stated, one would expect that mortgage rates would have moved higher this week, but instead they’ve remained flat. Seeing how last week rates were only one basis point off of 2016 lows, that’s great news for anyone looking to lock in a low rate.

The Freddie Mac Private Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) is showing that the average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is unchanged from last week at 3.42% (0.5 points); the average rate on a 15-year rate is also unchanged at 2.72% (0.5 points); while the average rate on a 5-year ARM actually moved lower by one basis point to 2.80% (0.4 points). Data for the survey is collected early on in the week, and since the 10-year has continued to rise, it’s possible mortgage rates might have budged a bit. Tomorrow’s jobs report remains the biggest threat to rates. If it’s a strong report, rates are likely to rise.

Here’s what chief economist at Freddie Mac, Sean Becketti, had to say about mortgage rates this week:

“The 10-year Treasury yield leaped to a two-week high following reports of the European Central Bank retreating from its bond-buying program ahead of its initial March deadline. In contrast, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained unchanged at 3.42 percent. Over the past two weeks, mortgage rates have remained fairly flat while Treasury yields have fallen and risen. This Friday’s jobs report will provide clarity on whether or not mortgage rates follow the recent upward trend in Treasury yields.”

What does this mean for me?

Mortgage rates are still hovering around 2016 lows. That’s great news for borrowers. I think that it’s more likely rates will rise in the coming weeks, so I recommend acting sooner rather than later if you’re trying to lock in a low rate on a refinance or purchase. All it takes is a quick phone call to get started. Of course, you could always get a free rate quote online.

Jobless Claims

The number of applications filed for U.S. unemployment benefits for the week of 10/1 are at 249, 000. That’s 5, 000 below the prior reading. The 4-week moving average is now at 253, 500.

Long-Term Bond Announcements

There are a slew of long-term bond announcements today, the most relevant one for mortgage rates being the 10-year bond announcement at 11:00am.

Wednesday:

• ADP Employment Report
• International Trade
• EIA Petroleum Status Report
• Fedspeak

Thursday:

• Jobless Claims
• Long-Term Bond Announcements

Friday:

• Employment Situation

Carter Wessman is originally from the charming town of Norfolk, Massachusetts. When he isn’t busy writing about mortgage related topics, you can find him playing table tennis, or jamming on his bass guitar.